APSU predicts future high school graduate numbers to remain strong

By: Public Relations & Marketing August 14, 2023

Drs. Luna, left, and King.

While future projections of high school graduates look bleak in other states, a recent study by Austin Peay State University shows the number of high school diplomas in Tennessee will remain strong through 2034. In a report produced by the Office of Decision Support and Institutional Research, projections were made based on factors such as historic population growth as well as grade-level enrollment trends within the state’s K-12 schools.

“It is no secret that people want to move to Tennessee, and are doing so in large numbers,” said Dr. Andrew Luna, Executive Director of DSIR at APSU. “We wanted to tap into this growth to see if either population and/or enrollment of students within certain grade levels can help to project future high school graduates.”

The report was written by Luna and Dr. Ryan King, research analyst with DSIR at APSU. In the report, Luna and King captured school enrollment and population data going back to 1985 and used these data to run various projection models. According to the report, kindergarten enrollment is a strong predictor of high school graduates 13 years into the future.

“Our projections show a steady increase in high school graduates until around 2025, after which the number of high school graduates flattens out,” said King. “Overall, the number of Tennessee high school graduates is expected to remain relatively constant in the near to long term.”

While both the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) and the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) have arrived at similar conclusions concerning both national and Tennessee high school graduate projections, the amount of error contained in the forecasts by Luna and King is considerably better. Their report was shared in early August at the Tennessee Association for Institutional Research conference last week and will be presented at the Southern Association of Institutional Research conference in October.

According to Luna, it is important to be able to adequately forecast high school enrollment. “While it is clear there is an increase in the number of non-traditional students going to college, the large majority of college students still come right out of high school,” Luna said. “Furthermore, accurate forecasts help elementary, secondary, and higher education institutions with planning, policymaking, and infrastructure development.”

The DSIR high school graduate projection report can be accessed through this link:

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